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Smart Reasoning:

C&E

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Qaagi - Book of Why

Causes

Effects

v Deflationary policies designed to control cost - push inflation will have the effect of reducing real national output below potentialcreatinga negative output gap

During a recession the output declinescreatinga negative output gap

Below trend growth – negative output gap : If the economy experiences a sustained slowdown or recession ( i.e. growth is well below the trend rate ) then output will fall short of potential GDPleadingto a negative output gap

to pull the economy below its potentialthus creatinga negative output gap

a fall in Real GDPcausesa negative output gap

aggregate demand fell below potential outputleadingto a negative output gap

during which actual output fell short of potentialthus creatinga negative ‘ output gap

to grow at a rate below its potential in the first half of the yearresultingin a negative output gap

a resultcreatinga negative output gap

falling ADcausinga negative output gap

actual economic output ... its potentialcreatesa negative output gap

falling aggregate demandcausinga negative output gap

all episodes beginning after December 31 , 2007 , during which actual output is estimated / forecast to fall short of potentialthus creatinga negative output gap

the global economic downturnhaving ledto a negative output gap

When there 's a negative demand shockcreatinga negative output gap

national output < potential outputleadingto a negative output gap

falling pricesmay contributenegative output gap

actual economic output ... a desirable , or “ potential , ” levelcreatesa negative output gap

The resulting higher real interest rates , in turn , lower aggregate demandleadsto a negative output gap

an increase in productive potential leading to excess aggregate supply CostsDiscourages consumer spending(passive) can be caused bya negative output gap

the influence of the weak yenwould ... contributeto the negative output gap

the increase in potential growth(passive) created bythe negative output gap

The US economy is now producing above its potential (leadingto a negative output gap

a general glut ... in turnshould createa negative output gap

The appreciated currency and higher real ratesleadto a negative output gap

these firmswould be creatinga negative output gap

to falling inflation or even deflationleadsto falling inflation or even deflation

rising unemployment(passive) caused byrising unemployment

needlessly high unemployment that is ( relatively ) easy to get rid ofcausesneedlessly high unemployment that is ( relatively ) easy to get rid of

when the productivity shock occuredcreatedwhen the productivity shock occured

to disinflationledto disinflation

strong deflationary pressurestriggeredstrong deflationary pressures

to shrink in the US , Japan and Britainare setto shrink in the US , Japan and Britain

the problems(passive) created bythe problems

in inflation that is too lowwill resultin inflation that is too low

a worsening of government financescausesa worsening of government finances

from a collapse in ADcreatedfrom a collapse in AD

low inflation or even deflationwill typically causelow inflation or even deflation

to a moderating inflation ratewill contributeto a moderating inflation rate

to a bottleneck in the economycan leadto a bottleneck in the economy

3 million unemployed until the mid 1980scausing3 million unemployed until the mid 1980s

monetary stimulusmight promptmonetary stimulus

inflation to fall persistently - implying a progressive depreciation of the terms of trade - andcausesinflation to fall persistently - implying a progressive depreciation of the terms of trade - and

pricing power(passive) caused bypricing power

in casesresultingin cases

to low core service inflation of 2.4 %has contributedto low core service inflation of 2.4 %

in an estimated structural fiscal position that is larger than the estimated headline balance ( Table 2resultingin an estimated structural fiscal position that is larger than the estimated headline balance ( Table 2

to upward inflationary pressuresleadingto upward inflationary pressures

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Smart Reasoning:

C&E

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