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Smart Reasoning:

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Qaagi - Book of Why

Causes

Effects

This site ... the factorsmay contributeto hindsight bias

other research ... the specific factorscausehindsight bias

Overconfidence biasalso leadsto hindsight bias

Good decisions , for a variety of reasons , can still result in bad outcomes and vice versaresultingin hindsight bias

Human factors questionnaires should be “ filled in ” before or during the procedure , but not afterwardto preventhindsight bias

Research in 2012 from psychological scientists Roese and Vohs from the University of Minnesota ... three cognitive factorscontributeto hindsight bias

the human brain thinking of events in the past(passive) is caused byHindsight bias

2011).)Relying on the problem to be solved — the problem solved by the claimed invention — as the reason to combine references to get to that claimedresultsin hindsight bias

The findings of Bernstein and Harley could also be explained in terms of initial surprise : In the blurry - to - clear condition , the identity of the subjects in the image should result in some initial surprise , which leads to a hindsight bias ; however , in the clear - to - blurry condition , the identity is not surprisingleadsto no hindsight bias

1977 ) to help in learning andto preventhindsight biases ( Fischhoff

Positive hypothesis testingcan triggerthe hindsight bias

to thinkcould ... have had been preventeda common hindsight bias

Errors in judging the future 's foreseeability and in remembering out past combineto createhindsight bias

emotioninfluencinghindsight bias right there

Disadvantages of Hindsight Hindsight can distort our interpretation of the pastleadingto hindsight bias

These similaritiescan leadto hindsight bias

your decision - making processalso preventshindsight bias

This expectation ... helpspreventhindsight bias

The Cognitive ProcessingLeadsto Hindsight Bias

the identity of the subjects in the image ... some initial surpriseleadsto a hindsight bias

The right insightcreateshindsight bias

Such an event coupled with slow recoverycan resultin hindsight bias

Errors in judging the future ’s foreseeability and in remembering our past combineto createhindsight bias

sesgos de la memoria individual y memoria colectivaresultinghindsight bias

starting with a clear , easy to recognize imageresultingin no hindsight bias

cognitive processes that serve to explain , clarify , and elaborate on eventscontributeto hindsight bias

far too many variables ’s healthy to decide how we ’ll do things better in the future , butleadsgiving into Hindsight Bias

Keeping a decision journal , where context and what was being thought at the time are crucial , seems particularly usefulto preventhindsight bias

a wayto preventhindsight bias

review themto preventhindsight biases

But since people are generally optimistic about their capacities , they will locate their presumed prior estimates closer to the real outcome than it had actually beenresultingin the hindsight bias

outcome knowledge ... the processesledto the outcome.2 Hindsight bias

the principle ... not only did learning of the outcomecreatehindsight bias

Technology ... helppreventhindsight bias

Some studies attemptedto preventhindsight bias

Write your reasons downto preventhindsight bias later on

Daniel Kahneman ... the mechanismcauseshindsight bias

a fatal accident that triggers all of the thingscausehindsight bias

new knowledge essentially overwriting a person ’s memory of their thoughts before knowing the outcome of an event and thus making it impossible for them to accurately describe what they believed at the time(passive) was caused byhindsight bias

Records are useful here toopreventhindsight bias

distortions of our memories of what we knew and/or believed before an event occurred , and is a significant source of overconfidence regarding our ability to predict the outcomes of future eventsmay causedistortions of our memories of what we knew and/or believed before an event occurred , and is a significant source of overconfidence regarding our ability to predict the outcomes of future events

people from learning from their experiencespreventspeople from learning from their experiences

a person to incorrectly believe in their ability to predict eventscan similarly causea person to incorrectly believe in their ability to predict events

memory distortion and lead to false recollectionscan causememory distortion and lead to false recollections

us to attach higher probabilities to events after they have happened ( ex post ) than we did before they happened ( ex antecausesus to attach higher probabilities to events after they have happened ( ex post ) than we did before they happened ( ex ante

us to believe people should know more than they docan leadus to believe people should know more than they do

difficulties in measuring errors in these cases.[40to causedifficulties in measuring errors in these cases.[40

difficulties in measuring errors in these cases.[42to causedifficulties in measuring errors in these cases.[42

to overconfidence and malpracticemay leadto overconfidence and malpractice

the trap of overconfidence(passive) caused bythe trap of overconfidence

the selectivityis causingthe selectivity

people to overlook methodological weaknessescausespeople to overlook methodological weaknesses

in this case , is n't(passive) caused byin this case , is n't

In either case(passive) is ... caused byIn either case

people to believe that outcomes were more predictable than they actually werecausespeople to believe that outcomes were more predictable than they actually were

obvious problems for investorscausesobvious problems for investors

an individual investorcan leadan individual investor

juries making negligence determinations to find defendants liable more frequently than if cost - benefit analysis were done correctly that is , on an ex ante basiswill leadjuries making negligence determinations to find defendants liable more frequently than if cost - benefit analysis were done correctly that is , on an ex ante basis

us from recognising our mistakespreventsus from recognising our mistakes

an individual to believe that ancan leadan individual to believe that an

people to over - estimate how obvious something was after the factcausespeople to over - estimate how obvious something was after the fact

to people trivializing important matters after they have occurredoften leadsto people trivializing important matters after they have occurred

people to perceive chimps societies in the jungleleadspeople to perceive chimps societies in the jungle

people to believe that certain outcomes are more predictable than they actually areleadspeople to believe that certain outcomes are more predictable than they actually are

to the perception that : C. psychological theories and observations are merely common sense.4most directly contributesto the perception that : C. psychological theories and observations are merely common sense.4

memory distortion , where the recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false theoretical outcomesmay causememory distortion , where the recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false theoretical outcomes

the profound perceptual distortion(passive) created bythe profound perceptual distortion

to the idea that the results of psychological experiments are mere common sensecontributesto the idea that the results of psychological experiments are mere common sense

people learning from their own mistakes , since they are unable to remember those mistakespreventspeople learning from their own mistakes , since they are unable to remember those mistakes

the Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ... when it censured Arthur Andersen & Co.could have influencedthe Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ... when it censured Arthur Andersen & Co.

people to assume that disastrous events could be foreseencausespeople to assume that disastrous events could be foreseen

difficulties in measuring errors in these cases many of these errors are considered preventable after the factto causedifficulties in measuring errors in these cases many of these errors are considered preventable after the fact

observers to assess the quality of a decision not by whether the process was sound but by whether its outcome was good or badleadsobservers to assess the quality of a decision not by whether the process was sound but by whether its outcome was good or bad

an agency to look more skeptically on practices that led to harm ex postto causean agency to look more skeptically on practices that led to harm ex post

memory distortion ( like the stick figure above ) , where recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false outcomescan causememory distortion ( like the stick figure above ) , where recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false outcomes

investors to be hypercritical of othersleadsinvestors to be hypercritical of others

people to react to new information by saying they knew it all alongcausespeople to react to new information by saying they knew it all along

people to accept models that only allow for collapse as a possible outcomeleadspeople to accept models that only allow for collapse as a possible outcome

observers to “ assess the quality of a decision not by whether the process was sound , but by whether the process 's outcome was good or badleadsobservers to “ assess the quality of a decision not by whether the process was sound , but by whether the process 's outcome was good or bad

a false sense of confidence in inexperienced investorscreatesa false sense of confidence in inexperienced investors

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Smart Reasoning:

C&E

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