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Smart Reasoning:

C&E

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Qaagi - Book of Why

Causes

Effects

While there is not much that macroeconomic policy can doto preventcommodity price shocks

hurricanes Katrina and Rita(passive) caused bypetrochemical price shocks

sudden increase in supplycreatingcommodity price shocks

A scenario where there is cost - push inflation due tomay leadcommodity price shocks

more attractive lanes ( with attractive pricing ) which open up in the vicinity of a particular lane(passive) can also be caused bySupply side price shocks

too much growth ... labor and capacity shortagescauseinflationary price shocks

eventscan causecommodity price shocks

an urgent and unexpected financing gap (resultingfrom commodity price shocks

the increase of China†™ s price levelresultingfromoil price shocks

world crises(passive) caused bycrude price shocks

Middle East instability or Latin American tyrants due to oil ’s commodity status(passive) caused byany potential commodity price shocks

alsocan ... contributealso

the uncertainties and volatility(passive) created bythe uncertainties and volatility

to sustained inflation effectsleadto sustained inflation effects

in an increase in food and energy inflationresultedin an increase in food and energy inflation

a severe trade - off between inflation and output gap stabilizationcreateda severe trade - off between inflation and output gap stabilization

a fairly indiscriminate sell - off ... including in places that should be beneficiaries of lower commodity prices , notably Kenyatriggereda fairly indiscriminate sell - off ... including in places that should be beneficiaries of lower commodity prices , notably Kenya

significantly to global business cycles , such as those observed in the 1970s ... Hamilton 1983 ; and Blinder and Rudd 2012 ) or more recently at the onset of the Great Recession ( Hamilton 2009have ... contributedsignificantly to global business cycles , such as those observed in the 1970s ... Hamilton 1983 ; and Blinder and Rudd 2012 ) or more recently at the onset of the Great Recession ( Hamilton 2009

recessionscan also createrecessions

many African countries to struggle to meet up with foreign exchange trade payment obligationshave causedmany African countries to struggle to meet up with foreign exchange trade payment obligations

in chaosresultin chaos

to the combined loss of $ 2.8 billion in real GDP and growth declined markedly in 2015 in the three most affected countriesledto the combined loss of $ 2.8 billion in real GDP and growth declined markedly in 2015 in the three most affected countries

the exchange rate changes(passive) caused bythe exchange rate changes

producers to play the commodity price shocks safe with their budgets and not do a lot of low value exploringhave causedproducers to play the commodity price shocks safe with their budgets and not do a lot of low value exploring

producers to play it safe with their budgets and not do a lot of low value exploringhave causedproducers to play it safe with their budgets and not do a lot of low value exploring

to regime shiftsleadto regime shifts

resource revenues(passive) caused byresource revenues

from trade policy through factor prices to poor householdsresultingfrom trade policy through factor prices to poor households

in opposite movements in the terms of trade for Canada and the United Statesresultin opposite movements in the terms of trade for Canada and the United States

according to the International Monetary Fund ( IMFcan ... contributeaccording to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF

government revenues to decline , and a depreciation in local currencies against the US dollar , which makes foreign currency loans more expensive to repaycausegovernment revenues to decline , and a depreciation in local currencies against the US dollar , which makes foreign currency loans more expensive to repay

problems in other vulnerable sectors ( e.g. financial system ) , which may require faster / larger adjustment to be able to manage contingent liabilitiescan ... triggerproblems in other vulnerable sectors ( e.g. financial system ) , which may require faster / larger adjustment to be able to manage contingent liabilities

around one - third of output growth fluctuations post 1950causedaround one - third of output growth fluctuations post 1950

the instability(passive) caused bythe instability

from weak global economic growth , appreciation of the dollarresultingfrom weak global economic growth , appreciation of the dollar

the same time(passive) influenced bythe same time

problems in other vulnerable sectors , which may require faster / larger adjustment to be able to man- age contingent liabilitiescan ... triggerproblems in other vulnerable sectors , which may require faster / larger adjustment to be able to man- age contingent liabilities

from reformsresultingfrom reforms

to higher levels of conflict and reduce the pacifying effects of defection messagingleadto higher levels of conflict and reduce the pacifying effects of defection messaging

partiallycontributedpartially

considerably more to fluctuations in the exchange rate in the other Latin American countries than in Argentinacontributedconsiderably more to fluctuations in the exchange rate in the other Latin American countries than in Argentina

to an increase in external debtleadto an increase in external debt

asymmetric effects on financial sector index returns or notcauseasymmetric effects on financial sector index returns or not

Most episodes(passive) were triggered byMost episodes

civil war in Colombiainfluencecivil war in Colombia

to growth in Argentinacontributedto growth in Argentina

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Smart Reasoning:

C&E

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