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Smart Reasoning:

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Qaagi - Book of Why

Causes

Effects

complex facts and variablesleadsto rationality in decision - making

Consumers operating under time constraints often cut off their searches before they are completeresultingin decisions that reflect bounded rationality

factors not directly tied to consequences(passive) are influenced byan optimal decision Bounded Rationality Decisions

of three steps : Limited search for criteria and alternatives – familiar criteria and easily found alternatives Limited review of alternatives – focus on alternatives , similar to those already in effect Satisficing – selecting the first alternative that is “ good enough ” This slide details the three key steps in bounded rationality decision making which makes it a much more simple process than the rational decision - making model(passive) is composedDecision Making in Bounded Rationality Simpler than rational decision making , decision making under bounded rationality

multiple factorsinfluencingrationality in decision making

risk assessmentcan contributerationality to the decision making process

Reasons For Reasons Reasonscontributeto rationality in decision - making

which are often too diffusedresultingin decisions constrained by bounded rationality

Baby Pics UC Riversideleda debilitating Bounded Rationality in Decision Making under Uncertainty

of three steps : Limited search for criteria and alternatives – familiar criteria and easily found alternatives Limited review of alternatives – focus alternatives , similar to those already in effect Satisficing – selecting the first alternative that is “ good enough ” Common Biases and Errors Overconfidence bias Anchoring bias Confirmation bias Availability bias Representative bias Escalation of Commitment bias Randomness Error Hindsight bias Overconfidence biascomposedof three steps : Limited search for criteria and alternatives – familiar criteria and easily found alternatives Limited review of alternatives – focus alternatives , similar to those already in effect Satisficing – selecting the first alternative that is “ good enough ” Common Biases and Errors Overconfidence bias Anchoring bias Confirmation bias Availability bias Representative bias Escalation of Commitment bias Randomness Error Hindsight bias Overconfidence bias

to the historic question of whether or not man i s a rational creatureinevitably leadsto the historic question of whether or not man i s a rational creature

of three steps : 1composedof three steps : 1

simoncreatedsimon

to a successful integrationwill leadto a successful integration

the market fluctuations in the following three ways firstinfluencesthe market fluctuations in the following three ways first

in ' satisficingresultsin ' satisficing

only to formalization of our instinctive errors and an illusion of control which is more dangerous than accepting from the start that the decision we are making is based on our gut feeling and treating our gut feeling therefore as suchcan ... leadonly to formalization of our instinctive errors and an illusion of control which is more dangerous than accepting from the start that the decision we are making is based on our gut feeling and treating our gut feeling therefore as such

only to formalization of our instinctive errors and an illusion of control which is more dangerous than accepting from the start that the decision we are making is based on our gut feeling and treating it therefore as suchcan ... leadonly to formalization of our instinctive errors and an illusion of control which is more dangerous than accepting from the start that the decision we are making is based on our gut feeling and treating it therefore as such

to the emergence of many popular conspiracy theorieshas ledto the emergence of many popular conspiracy theories

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Smart Reasoning:

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